A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."